Intensel’s ‘BlueSwan’ Analytics
Climate risk is financial risk, and it is accelerating at an alarming rate. It is also a systematic and unpriced risk within our global financial system. Floods, droughts, typhoons, and storm surges result in billions of dollars of losses every year and these losses are set to increase three times over the next 10 years. To add to this threat, the climate system is highly interconnected and complex. This makes it challenging to map climate risks to physical assets and critical infrastructure. Effective climate risk mitigation measures are therefore lacking, leaving most assets vulnerable to climate change. Intensel’s mission is to build a more resilient global economy with climate solutions that support real-time, accurate decision-making.
Intensel offers a climate analytics platform in the form of a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solution. Using AI, supercomputers, big data, and in-house PhD climate scientists and financial experts, Intensel has developed a scalable fintech solution to help clients – banks, real estate owners, insurance companies, and asset managers – identify and understand the financial impacts of climate change now and under future climate scenarios so that they may build more climate-resilient portfolios and stay ahead of imminent climate regulations.
The cost of the “Blueswan” solution range is between US$ 25,000 and US$ 100,000 depending on the number of assets analyzed. The platform enables clients to identify their potential Climate Value at Risk (CVAR) due to a range of climate hazards as a result of climate change. Presented as a % as well as in a dollar value. These metrics enable organizations to identify and manage risks and opportunities and disclose them in their reports that will satisfy investors as well as regulators.
Dragon Capital is an investment group focused on Vietnam and other Southeast Asian emerging markets. Dedicated to improving corporate governance, contributing to society, and promoting sustainable development in the countries in which it invests, Dragon Capital (DC) seeks to optimize risk-adjusted performance by integrating ESG factors – including climate change – across its actively managed funds, comprising public equity and bond funds. To this end, in late 2020, Intensel ran its ‘blueswan’ portfolio climate risk assessment on DC’s Veil portfolio of 35 companies and 154 assets in Vietnam.
It is well known that Vietnam has a long coastline, and large deltas housing a rapidly growing urban population. Intensel’s analysis shows that the country faces big challenges in three of the five major physical risk categories: floods, storm surges, and typhoons.
DC and the Intensel team selected those physical assets that, via portfolio weightings and market capitalization, are most significant to the value of the company. It was determined that for Veil the significance is not the current value at risk itself, but rather the likely projected increase in value at risk, until the period 2030-2050, under the given assumptions.